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Towards a soft landing of mortgages in Europe

In France, experts expect a slowdown in mortgage lending simple. They rule out any outbreak of the "bubble".
Life "pink" in the mortgage market "will not last." European banks are still benefiting, said Standard & Poor's (S & P) in a study, "the best of both worlds: high volumes of credit and few defects, because of low interest rates. But in Britain, this idyllic picture already peeling. Raising interest rates has increased the carrying costs of households, pushing down the property prices and volumes of loans.
It remains in the "soft landing," said Jean-Michel Six, chief Europe economist at S & P. It has already taken place in Ireland, and is likely to recur in Spain. In France and Italy, it will be even a slowdown. "Property prices are less inflated and the level of household debt is moderate," the agency said.
dream scenario for the Bank of France
For the Bank of France, who worried in a recent study of "sustainability" of the dynamics, origin essentially financial, mortgage loans for household budgets, it's a dream scenario. The debt ratio, which fell in France from 50.5% at end 1994 to 48.8% in mid-1996, recently flew to achieve a "record" of 60.3% to end of December 2004. The burden of repayment on the household gross disposable income rose 6.9% in 2000 to 8.5% in 2004.
The lighter weight of interest (4.9% in 1993 to 2% in 2004) was not enough to offset the increase in the burden of repayment capital. "The property prices have risen faster than household incomes French since 2000 and the weight of the real estate accounts for a quarter of their income, against a fifth in 2000. It is normal to see some slowdown, but it will not be a bubble that will burst, "says Jean-Michel Six.
The tone is also easing the additional concern of the Bank of France, that is to say, the growing share of variable rate loans, representing 35% of new contracts, against less than 10 % before 2002, and which cause "increased exposure to interest rate risk for our clients". But "assuming a sharp rise in short-term rates, the proportion of defaulters certainly increase (...). This scenario is not theoretical, since it has already produced for British households (...), who found themselves massively insolvent with soaring interest rates at the end of the decade 1980 " . Jean-Michel Six, it would require a 3% increase in interest rates to cause a housing crisis, and "there is far". The source
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The "rich poor" on the island of Ré and the reform of the ISF

(Jean-Louis Andreani). It was one of the best lobbying operations ever carried out against tax on capital. Within months, Constancin Valerie, 42, president since 2002 of the Defense Association of the inhabitants of the island of Ré (Adhir), has achieved the impossible: to convince politicians and the media that the island of Ré the poor pay taxes for the rich.

On June 8 press conference in Paris of Adhir. The 15 letter to all MPs and senators, the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister and Ministers of Bercy demanding "the removal of the ISF or, failing that, his reform." And on Sept. 14, the government announced a major tax reform which de facto limits the weight of the ISF. Until several bills designed to lighten the tax from becoming amendments to the draft budget being debated in Parliament soon.

's argument Ms. Constancin is simple: she defends small retirees subject to the ISF because they own houses or land affected by rising prices, spectacular in this ultra-chic island. Some are driven to sell their only asset, a small shack of a fisherman or farmer inherited from their parents. For a bit, thanks to the activism of this very political entrepreneur, originally from mainland and married to a Rétais, the TFR would have become the main social problem of the island, far ahead of that of many young people forced to leave, unable to afford housing ...

Yet a Rétais low-income, owner of a small country house with his bit of garden, is hardly threatened by the ISF. Such property does not meet the current threshold for triggering the tax (720 000), as evidenced by the ads on site.

And even if it was for our little shack with white walls, the tax would be very low. A house of 750 000 is indeed subject to a rate of 0.55% ISF, but only for a fraction of its value above 720 000 euro (30,000 euro). Is an annual tax of 165 euros plus: the main residence has a 20% discount; dependents and borrowings are taken into account. Thus, the owner of a principal residence of 750 000 euros pays nothing. Therefore

Rétais taxpayers in trouble with the ISF are rather own multiple homes and / or building land. They sometimes add a strong heritage furniture (stocks, etc..) Whose sole income sufficient to pay their ISF: one of the members of Adhir imposed for about 15,000 euros, says values securities for more than 1.3 million.

But the ISF is a tax "declarative" and these taxpayers have never emerged or have underestimated their heritage. The Rétais who sold a plot of buildable land to pay the ISF are, essentially, large landlords adjusted by the tax over several years ...

Read the rest of the article on lemonde.fr
source: lemonde.fr

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"It took that lives are at stake to respond"

What is the status of the housing stock of social housing today? The objective of Borloo build 100,000 homes per year by injecting 250 million euros extra in the budget it sound feasible and sufficient?

- Borloo committed to build 400,000 homes in 2005 alone. According to the latest figures I have, 100,000 cases are waiting for housing in Paris, 350,000 in Ile-de-France, 1.3 million on the entire French territory. Quantitatively, we can say that these 400,000 homes are inadequate but it will still unlock the situation a bit of requests for access to housing.
The current situation of inaction of successive policies on housing. 400,000 homes built, okay, but will he stop there? The social cohesion plan provided for 500,000 homes in 5 years. Will they overlap with others?
The consequence of the failure of housing supply is inflation. Rents are rising because demand is too high relative to supply.

Some ways exist to address this, but governments have not been proven.
Housing assistance has been increased by 1.8%, while private rents have risen 4.57% since the beginning of the year, and that no revaluation was made in 2004. To account for the increase in rents, housing assistance should have been upgraded by 6%.
Moreover, the minister wants to create a new index to replace the index the construction costs for which changes are significant, but in the medium term it will come back to the same.
Some aid is also provided to assist in access to housing and we must continue in this direction. For example, ANAH subsidizes the work to improve housing for some donors who agree to rent at a lower price than the market.
As for zero-interest loans for homeownership, it can help in a number of cases. 20,000 loans per month have been granted since early February. Increase its scope is a good thing, but it is not ready to zero that will solve all problems.
400,000 homes built, we could do better, but already he gets there ... Will it really necessary funds? A priori funds have been released but it seems so huge that it's hard to achieve.
shame that it took that dilapidated buildings caught fire and that lives are at stake to react ...

Municipalities should all have 20% of social housing. Where are we today? Do you think sanctions will actually be enforced? Loans over 50 years they will grow mayors to build?

- The threshold of 20% social housing in the municipalities was already included in the SRU. So there already but the fines are so low that cities would rather pay than build public housing. It is a political problem. The mayors who have built are often threatened not to be reelected. The threshold of 20% social housing is a good thing but in practice nothing is done to verify the application and implement effective sanctions. The intention is good but we must see how it happen.
Beyond the technical and financial problem of the construction is a problem of will of mayors. Housing office has a bad reputation. We think it will devalue the neighborhood, make a poor population that housing will not be maintained and will be degraded. These live shots of many people and therefore voters who put pressure on mayors.
Regarding the loan over 50 years, I'm not sure it will have an impact. Some mayors are interested, I'm not saying that these loans will be at a loss, but they will not solve the underlying problem. I hope the reality show otherwise, but I doubt it.

The construction of social housing is one thing. The assumption of this accommodation is one another. The minister expect anything to facilitate the accession of the poorest families?

- The construction and home are linked. If there is congestion because too few dwellings are proposed and must therefore be selective. With more housing, we will promote the social home. Construction is expected to enable poorer families to access it.
However, we must not only build social housing. We must also develop the intermediate and private homes. Any middle class earns too much for access to public housing but too little access to private housing. We must see the problem housing as a whole. Regarding the award process itself, I do not think it is challenged.

Interviewed by Manuelle Tilly
source: cnn

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The "roommate" ever popular with students

This should be probably a result of the "Friends Indeed". ... According to a poll conducted by Ipsos on behalf of the site appartager.com, 22 and 23 July by telephone on a sample of 510 people aged 15-44 years, representative of the French population, selected by quota sampling, 20% of French 15-44 years claim to have already lived, live or wish to live in roommate. 28% of people have never tried this form of Anglo Saxon, who can share an apartment and said they were tempted by the experience. For 52% of respondents, the goal is to "Find a solution to rising rents." 24% make that choice for learning to live with others ", 20% believe that the roommate is a way to" break their loneliness and make new friends ".28% fall in the 25-34 age bracket, 11 % ages 15-24 19% 35-44. 71% said they had no preference regarding the sex of the person. 12% and want to share an apartment with someone of the same sex

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embellished the real estate market in Japan

After fourteen years of steady decline, the average price of property rose for the first time over one year to June 2005, according to a study by the Japanese Ministry of Transport and Spatial Planning (MLIT).

Between 1 July 2004 and June 31, 2005, the price of residential property in the capital rose by 0.5% and 0.6% in the commercial sector, according to the annual study. Growth that fuels the hopes of a return to growth and the possible end of deflation that plagued the Japanese economy for over seven years.

The ministry said the increase reflects the growth in demand for office space and luxury apartments in the center of the megalopolis, the ministry said.
Indeed, new residential towers, ultra-modern, are again ground in neighborhoods of the capital where did not live more than businesses and shops. Massive urban projects around luxury shopping complexes also contribute to attracting businesses and individuals in uptown.
"These data are very positive for the Japanese economy. They show that Japanese companies are more constrained in their investment by ending deflation , "Said Junichi Makino, an analyst at Daiwa Securities.
However, only Tokyo has so far this reboot. Indeed, for the fourteenth consecutive year, prices in the rest of Japan declined. Den in early July 2004 and end June 2005, and are dropped by an average of 3.8% in the residential and 5% in the commercial sector.
In August, another study conducted using data and different criteria by the National Tax Agency showed the same trends.

source: batiactu.com

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trees they would rise up to heaven?

Then, bubble or no housing bubble ? Burst near or sustainable growth? Should we expect a crash in 1991 or so tomorrows? That's the question ... According
FNAIM and the Century 21 group, the trend seems to decline at least for the old ... after the record increase of 16.2% last year. A break - but is it really confirmed? - Calm the spirits and refresh their heads ... But for now we're still at the top of the curve.
Pessimists say that this time the increase has lasted too long to go too high and the market will spin. But the "professionals the profession, "we unanimously optimistic worry ... until proven otherwise, they see the trend continue, although perhaps a bit slower, but say it without an about-face, based on an application more creditworthy than expected, boosted by low interest rates ... and will remain so for how long?
But of course, is the market will decide and the market is you! ...
source abonim.com